New Lex Fridman Insight: John Carmack: Doom, Quake, VR, AGI, Programming, Video Games, and Rockets
Sent June 11, 2026
Key Insights
- John Carmack's early programming involved innovative hacks on the Apple II, enabling scrolling graphics that were foundational for later game development.
- Carmack argues that garbage collection in programming, despite criticism, prevents vulnerabilities and is beneficial for most applications.
- The shareware model used for Commander Keen allowed free distribution of the first episode, leading to 20 times more players than those who paid.
- Carmack believes the chances of humans landing on Mars by 2030 are less than 50%, despite infrastructure possibly being in place.
- Carmack estimates a 50-60% chance of achieving AGI by 2030, suggesting necessary insights may already exist in current literature.
How the conversation moved
The episode begins with John Carmack reflecting on his early experiences with programming, particularly his innovative hacks on the Apple II that enabled scrolling graphics, which were foundational for his later work in game development. He describes his fascination with computers as a 'love at first sight' experience, highlighting the magic he felt in understanding what a computer could do. This early exposure set the stage for his future innovations in gaming, as he continually sought ways to push the boundaries of what was technically possible.
Carmack then delves into the complexities of programming languages, discussing the benefits and drawbacks of languages like C++, Lisp, and Go. He emphasizes the importance of code maintainability and the role of automated tools in catching errors in large codebases. Carmack argues that garbage collection, despite some criticisms, is beneficial for most applications as it prevents vulnerabilities and enhances software security. This stance challenges the common notion that garbage collection makes programmers lazy.
The conversation shifts to the evolution of game development and distribution models, particularly the success of the shareware model with Commander Keen. Carmack explains how this model allowed the first episode of games to be distributed for free, leading to significantly more players engaging with the game than those who paid for the full version. The discussion also covers the technical innovations in games like Doom and Quake, which introduced new rendering techniques and game engine capabilities.
Finally, the episode explores Carmack's views on space exploration and the potential for AGI. He expresses skepticism about humans landing on Mars by 2030, citing a less than 50% chance despite possible infrastructure being in place. On AGI, Carmack is optimistic, estimating a 50-60% chance of achieving it by 2030 and suggesting that the necessary insights might already exist in current literature. This optimism reflects his belief in the rapid advancement of technology and the potential for significant breakthroughs in the near future.
Surprising moments
In-depth
Programming Innovations
- Carmack's early Apple II hacks enabled scrolling graphics, crucial for game development.
- Garbage collection is beneficial for most applications, preventing code vulnerabilities.
Game Distribution Models
- The shareware model allowed the first episode of games to be free, expanding player reach.
- Commander Keen's success demonstrated the effectiveness of this distribution strategy.
Space Exploration and AGI
- Carmack doubts humans will land on Mars by 2030, citing less than 50% chance.
- He estimates a 50-60% chance of achieving AGI by 2030, with insights possibly existing in current literature.
Notable Quotes
I think garbage collection is unequivocally a good thing for most programs to be written in.
Still open
- Carmack questions whether the necessary insights for AGI are already present in existing literature, leaving open the possibility of imminent breakthroughs.