Stephen Kotkin: Stalin, Putin, and the Nature of Power

The conversation begins with Kotkin framing the central question around the nature of power and leadership, contrasting the American and Russian systems. He highlights how Stalin's rise to power was facilitated by Lenin's creation of the general secretary position, which was specifically designed for Stalin's organizational skills. This institutional design allowed Stalin to consolidate power effectively, contrasting with the American system where power is intentionally constrained to prevent authoritarianism.

Kotkin argues that Putin's popularity in Russia is not solely due to his personal appeal but also because of the lack of viable political alternatives and the economic growth during his early terms. He provides concrete evidence of Russia's economic revival, noting the average economic growth of 7% per year during Putin's first two terms, which was supported by China's demand for Soviet-era products. This discussion highlights the socio-economic dynamics that reinforce Putin's position.

Lex doesn't challenge Kotkin's framing directly, but the conversation implicitly raises the question of whether Russia could develop a system with similar constraints to the American model. The absence of pushback moments suggests a consensus on the need for institutional reform in Russia to prevent the concentration of power. However, the conversation does not delve into how such reforms could be realistically implemented given the current political climate.

The discussion concludes with an exploration of the catastrophic potential of great power conflicts, emphasizing the importance of managing international interests to avoid war. Kotkin notes that a hypothetical World War III could result in 555 million casualties, far surpassing World War II's toll. The conversation ends on a note of caution, underscoring the need for careful international management to prevent such a humanitarian catastrophe.